In a pivotal development following his extensive diplomatic mission in Israel, President Joe Biden has shed light on high-level discussions between the United States and Israeli military authorities, seeking alternative approaches to the widely anticipated full-scale invasion of Gaza, a response triggered by the Hamas attack on October 7.
During his return flight to Washington, President Biden was queried about the potential large-scale ground assault contemplated by the substantial 300,000-strong Israeli military deployment along the Gaza border. In response, the President revealed, “We had a lengthy discussion regarding this matter and explored alternative options. Our military is in active communication with their Israeli counterparts, considering the range of possibilities.” Regrettably, he refrained from divulging specific details.
This revelation comes in the wake of the first indications from the Israel Defense Forces, voiced by Lt Col Richard Hecht, suggesting a shift away from the certainty of a ground invasion. Lt Col Hecht emphasized, “We are preparing for the next stages of conflict, but the nature of these actions has not been confirmed. While a ground offensive has been widely discussed, it may ultimately assume a different form.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had vowed to “demolish Hamas” in the aftermath of Hamas insurgents breaching the border wire around Gaza, resulting in the loss of approximately 1,400 lives, mostly civilians, and the abduction of over 200 individuals. He had mobilized a substantial array of tanks in southern Israel, seemingly poised for action.
However, the impending assault was temporarily put on hold as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken embarked on a regional tour. Several high-level U.S. officials, including Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Gen Michael Kurilla, conveyed a unanimous message, advising against a hasty military response in the throes of national anger, reminiscent of the post-9/11 period.
Of paramount concern to U.S. officials is the potential for a two-front war, with Hezbollah, operating from the north, engaging Israel in reprisals, coupled with ongoing exchanges of fire along the Lebanese border. Moreover, a ground assault is projected to result in a humanitarian catastrophe for which Israel could be held accountable, with no guarantee of Hamas’s destruction and the possibility of radicalizing a new generation of Palestinian recruits in Gaza and the West Bank.
On the other hand, allowing Hamas to remain in power is an untenable prospect for a government that failed to prevent the attack, which marked the most significant loss of Jewish life since the Holocaust. The former IDF chief of staff, Dan Halutz, asserted, “Whatever the outcome in Gaza, Hamas should be eradicated. We must pursue them relentlessly until they are brought to justice.”
U.S. diplomats harbor a faint hope that concerted pressure from the Arab world might compel Hamas to depart Gaza for an agreed-upon sanctuary, reminiscent of the Palestine Liberation Organization’s withdrawal from Lebanon to Tunisia in 1982. A summit had been scheduled between President Biden and leaders from Egypt, Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority in Amman, Jordan, to discuss this possibility. However, this meeting was canceled following a devastating explosion at al-Ahli Arab hospital in Gaza City, resulting in numerous Palestinian casualties.
Notably, experts like Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official, remain skeptical about the feasibility of such a non-violent resolution. He expressed doubt that the international community, let alone Hamas, would comply with such a plan, particularly given the political constraints faced by the Netanyahu government.
Eyal Hulata, a former Israeli national security adviser, emphasized the potential for various ground offensive operations, short of a full-scale invasion, such as special forces missions and hostage rescue operations.
As Israel’s Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, indicated that some form of ground operation appeared imminent, it is evident that the decision-making process is evolving and increasingly involves the direct participation of President Biden in Israel’s strategic deliberations.
This unfolding dynamic represents a shift from the traditional paradigm where Israel kept its military plans confidential from the United States, raising the stakes for President Biden and further intertwining their strategic responsibilities in this complex geopolitical landscape.
