The heat dome that enveloped a substantial portion of the United States throughout the summer has dissipated, leaving behind an arid and desiccated landscape, notably in Texas.
Despite the onset of cooler weather, a newly released analysis from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) reveals that more than 30% of the continental US continues to endure drought conditions. Vast areas of the Pacific northwest, Midwest, and a significant portion of the southern regions grapple with drier-than-usual circumstances.
However, in the heart of the Texas hill country, situated centrally within the state, an “exceptional” drought – the most severe classification – has persisted for an extended period. Lawns and fields lie barren, trees wither, even along creek banks, and wells have run dry.
The Guadalupe River, a major water source for the small city of Kerrville, has ceased to flow along parts of its route, transforming from a welcoming oasis into a broad, parched riverbed that now crunches underfoot.
While the region surrounding Kerrville is accustomed to arid conditions and cyclical droughts, the year 2023 has proven to be exceptionally severe. Locals draw parallels between this year’s circumstances and a historic drought in 2011, which stood as Texas’s driest year on record. However, many concur that the present situation feels even more dire.
Despite higher rainfall totals this year, the drought’s impact has been exacerbated by consecutive summers marked by extreme heat and a lack of replenishing rain during the cooler months over the past two years, explained Gene Williams, General Manager of the Headwaters Groundwater Conservation District. This entity oversees well registrations, permits, and local aquifer inspections in Kerr County.
In a state renowned for cattle ranching, the drought has pushed some landowners to their limits. Megan Mitchell, who, along with her husband Clay, has raised a small beef cattle herd on their family farm in neighboring Gillespie County, expressed the gravity of their predicament: “If we don’t receive rain, it’s not a matter of if our well will run dry, but when.”
Last month, the Mitchells made a difficult decision to sell five of their cows, with the remaining two soon to follow suit.
The couple first contemplated parting with their cattle in February, when the scarcity of rainfall caused hay prices to surge by up to 50%. During this period, Megan, who works at the local feed store, witnessed the struggle to secure hay for customers. Initially, the store imposed a two-bale limit, which was later reduced to one, and eventually, they ran out of hay entirely.
“We went from March until the middle of April with no round bales,” Megan recounted. “You couldn’t find a round bale anywhere in the state of Texas.”
Despite the challenges, they persevered until the peak of summer when their neighbors’ wells began running dry, and hay prices remained exorbitant. It was then that Megan and Clay acknowledged they could no longer sustain their cattle.
The cows were sold, leaving an eerie silence in their wake. Megan still struggles with the absence of the herd’s background chatter, typically comprised of feeding and milling sounds.
Noaa’s analysis attributes the expansion and intensification of drought conditions across the US this summer to factors beyond mere precipitation levels. It highlights the role of evaporative demand, referred to as “the thirst of the atmosphere,” and extreme heat.
Austin, located at the eastern edge of the hill country, experienced an exceptional heatwave this year, setting records for triple-digit temperatures and enduring a staggering 45 consecutive days with temperatures surpassing 100F (37.7C).
As the world grapples with addressing climate change, Texas occupies a unique position, being both a major energy-consuming state and a significant player in refining and petrochemical industries. Simultaneously, Texas has held the lead in wind-generated electricity for 17 years and ranks second in solar installations, trailing only California.
The challenges faced in the Texas hill country serve as a microcosm of the broader global climate predicament, according to Dr. Zong-Liang Yang, a professor in the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences at the University of Texas at Austin.
Yang emphasized that without human-induced climate change, the extreme heatwaves experienced across the US, Mexico, and southern Europe this summer would have been highly improbable, with a probability of less than 1%.
While climate scientists express high confidence in linking extreme temperatures to climate change, the relationship between climate change and drought is more intricate, influenced by an array of factors encompassing wind patterns, cloud formations, and pollutants.
Despite the need for further research, Yang suggested, “For current ongoing droughts, I would think that human-induced climate change would play a very high role.”
Yang leads a research project examining climate models for the Colorado River Basin, a vital source of drinking water for Austin. The team’s findings indicate that temperatures within the basin are projected to increase by 2.75C to 6.5C by the close of the century, underscoring the rapidly evolving climate. Additionally, an increased number of dry days are anticipated. When precipitation does occur, it is likely to manifest as heavy rainfall, raising concerns about flash flooding as saturated landscapes and urban areas struggle to cope with the deluge.
