Canberra, Australia – A new survey conducted by the United States Studies Centre has shed light on the intricate perspectives held by Australians regarding their country’s security alliances, especially in the event of Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House. The survey, which encompassed 1,019 Australian adults, sought opinions on various foreign policy and security matters related to the Indo-Pacific region.
A noteworthy finding in the survey reveals that 37% of Australian respondents believe their country should reconsider the Anzus security alliance with the US if Donald Trump regains the presidency in the upcoming election year. This view is countered by 43% of respondents who disagree with this notion. Furthermore, 47% of those surveyed express the belief that the Aukus pact commits Australia to supporting the US in armed conflicts.
Interestingly, this marks a significant shift from the previous year when 63% of Australian respondents viewed Canberra’s security alliance with Washington as enhancing their nation’s security. In the 2023 survey, that figure has dipped to 54%, underscoring the evolving landscape of public sentiment.
The Aukus pact, which has been a subject of substantial debate, garners mixed opinions. While 46% of Australian respondents anticipate that Aukus will boost employment opportunities in the country, 49% support the idea of Australia having nuclear-powered submarines. However, 42% of those surveyed question whether the program justifies its substantial $368 billion price tag.
It is worth noting that supporters of the Coalition are more inclined than their Labor counterparts to believe that Aukus will enhance security in Asia, with 60% of Coalition supporters sharing this perspective compared to 44% of Labor supporters. Among all Australian respondents, 43% hold the view that the nuclear submarines will contribute to a safer Asia, while a substantial 42% either remain uncertain or are ambivalent about the pact’s impact on regional security.
Notably, there has been a shifting dynamic in Australian concerns regarding China’s role in the region. A majority (51%) of Australian respondents currently regard China as predominantly detrimental to the region. However, compared to the prior year, there has been a decline in apprehension about the likelihood of becoming embroiled in an armed conflict with China over the next decade. In 2022, 58% of respondents viewed such a scenario as either very or somewhat likely, a figure that has reduced to 49% in 2023.
Nevertheless, the majority of Australian respondents (63%) still anticipate that China will emerge as the foremost economically and militarily influential nation in Asia over the next few decades. A significant proportion (57%) of those respondents perceive this outcome negatively.
These survey findings coincide with Anthony Albanese’s recent visit to Washington and come ahead of the Prime Minister’s anticipated trip to Shanghai and Beijing later this week.
The Aukus pact, conceived in response to escalating strategic competition in the region, has faced congressional hurdles in the United States. During Albanese’s recent visit to the US, President Joe Biden sought to assuage concerns regarding the nuclear-powered submarine deal, asserting that the participating nations do not intend to “surround China.”
As congressional approvals for the Aukus deal remain uncertain, doubts have emerged regarding Australia’s commitment to joining the US in any potential conflict with China, a concern articulated by congressional researchers.
With the Prime Minister’s forthcoming visit to China marking the 50th anniversary of Gough Whitlam’s historic visit to the country in 1973, Albanese emphasizes the need to navigate diplomatic relations between the US and China with transparency and directness. He underscores the importance of dialogue and cooperation while acknowledging differences in political systems and values.
