Meteorological experts are forecasting a distinctive weather pattern for India in 2024, projecting a brief spring followed by a potentially harsh summer. The transition from El Nino conditions to a neutral phase is expected by June, with indications pointing towards the onset of La Nina by September.
The India Meteorological Department’s latest report, released on January 31, outlines a 73% chance of transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions between April and June. Despite ongoing El Nino indicators, private weather forecaster Skymet Weather notes a faster weakening of atmospheric indicators.
Skymet Weather highlights an abnormal pattern in the probabilistic ENSO forecast, drawing parallels with the transition observed in 2016. This year’s forecast suggests a strong El Nino at the beginning, collapsing by mid-May or June, followed by an abrupt rise indicating La Nina development by year-end.
Impact on Summer and Monsoon:
Before the transition to ENSO-neutral conditions, experts anticipate a harsh impact on Indian spring and summer. Heat waves are expected to be more frequent and intense, with the ENSO-neutral conditions projected only by June. However, the silver lining lies in the prediction of a normal monsoon, potentially even better than the previous year.
Early Warning and Caution:
Meteorologists, including Mahesh Palawat from Skymet Weather and M Rajeevan, former secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, caution that the forecast is preliminary. They predict a harsh pre-monsoon season with above-normal temperatures. Clearer signals on the transition from El Nino to La Nina are expected by March.
Global Alignment and Other Factors:
The forecast aligns with the US’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), projecting a more than 60% probability of La Nina conditions developing by August-September-October. Experts emphasize that while Pacific conditions play a significant role, other global parameters impacting monsoon health must be considered.
La Nina Recap and Snow Cover Influence:
The La Nina event in the previous year, though relatively weak, was unusually prolonged, constituting a rare “triple-dip” occurrence. Another contributing factor to the anticipated warm spring and summer is the significantly low snow cover in higher altitudes.
While recent rain and snow have helped alleviate deficits, experts caution that further study of atmospheric conditions is crucial for precise forecasts. Dilution of El Nino conditions to neutral, followed by a potential build-up to La Nina during the same year, presents an interesting scenario. Comprehensive analysis considering various global factors influencing monsoon health is deemed necessary for accurate predictions.
