The latest meteorological developments suggest that India is heading towards its driest monsoon season in nearly a decade. Weather officials are attributing this dire situation to the El Nino weather pattern, which is anticipated to suppress September’s precipitation following an August that is poised to be the driest in over a century.
This looming summer rainfall deficit could have severe repercussions on essential commodities such as sugar, pulses, rice, and vegetables, potentially exacerbating overall food inflation. In July, food inflation already surged to its highest level since January 2020.
The monsoon, an economic linchpin for India’s $3 trillion economy, is responsible for nearly 70% of the precipitation required to nourish crops and replenish water reservoirs and aquifers. Alarmingly, close to half of the agricultural land in the world’s most populous nation remains without irrigation.
“El Nino has significantly dampened rainfall in August and is expected to cast a negative shadow on September’s precipitation as well,” warned a senior official from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). They chose to remain anonymous due to a lack of media authorization.
India is currently on track to conclude the June-September monsoon season with a rainfall deficit of at least 8%, marking the widest shortfall since 2015 when the El Nino phenomenon similarly hindered precipitation.
While the weather department is yet to issue an official statement, Indian weather authorities are set to announce the September forecast on August 31.
In a previous comprehensive forecast unveiled on May 26, the IMD had predicted a 4% rainfall deficit for the season, accounting for a limited impact from the El Nino pattern.
El Nino, a Pacific Ocean warming event, tends to trigger drier conditions across the Indian subcontinent.
August is poised to become India’s driest in over a century, as affirmed by weather department officials earlier this month. This year’s monsoon has been tumultuous, with June witnessing rainfall 9% below average and July rallying with a 13% surplus.
The southwest monsoon’s withdrawal from northwestern India is projected to adhere to the normal schedule, or potentially occur slightly earlier than the customary date of September 17, according to another IMD official. The past four Septembers have reported above-average rains due to the delayed withdrawal of the monsoon.
“September may bring subpar rainfall to northern and eastern states, though a revival in rainfall is plausible for the southern peninsula,” elaborated the second official.
September’s rainfall holds paramount importance for the cultivation of winter-sown crops such as wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas
The palpable depletion of soil moisture resulting from meager August rainfall poses a direct threat to winter crop planting. A Mumbai-based dealer from a global trading house emphasized, “We require substantial September rainfall; otherwise, the planting of winter crops could be adversely impacted.”
