NEW DELHI: The first month of the four-month monsoon season, June, is becoming drier and hotter, delaying the sowing of kharif (summer) crops by two to three weeks and pushing winter-planted wheat into periods of heat stress, according to official data.
In June this year, farmers were able to plant only 2.27 million hectares under paddy, the lowest in a decade, as rainfall was 11% deficient. Rice, one of the most water-intensive crops, has been particularly affected. Since 2008, nine out of the past sixteen years have seen below-normal rains in June.
The onset of the monsoon, which begins in June in Kerala, is crucial for the timely sowing of kharif crops. However, poor rains and high temperatures, exacerbated by the climate crisis, have slowed this process. The delayed and erratic monsoon has resulted in reduced kharif planting over the past four years, followed by a subsequent pick-up in July. This delay has a domino effect, pushing back the rice harvest and shortening the sowing period for winter wheat, exposing the crop to damaging early summer heatwaves during its maturation phase.
In 2023, rainfall was 33% deficient until June 26, leading to a significant reduction in the paddy area, which stood at 2.66 million hectares, down by 569,000 hectares compared to the same period last year. Despite 2023 being an outlier due to the impact of La Nina, an uncertain monsoon during June has become a norm, especially in states like Bihar.
Avinash Kishore, Senior Research Fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute in New Delhi, highlighted the impact of the late monsoon in Bihar, where rainfall was less than 80% of normal in 14 districts as of July 12. The delayed monsoon affects paddy transplantation, which in turn delays wheat sowing, impacting both yields and farmers’ profits.
Additionally, the rainy season has been unpredictable, with heavy rains often occurring when the monsoon is supposed to wind down, further delaying crop harvesting. This pattern has led to delayed wheat sowing in 2018, 2021, 2022, and 2023 by up to three weeks. Wheat, planted in November and harvested in April, has been increasingly subjected to early summer heatwaves. These high temperatures around harvesting time can cause terminal heat stress, wilting the wheat grains and reducing output. In 2022 and 2023, this phenomenon significantly impacted India’s wheat production, driving federally held stocks to a 16-year low and causing prices to soar.
