Slovakia’s former Prime Minister and the chairman of the Smer-SD party, Robert Fico, made a notable arrival at his party’s election headquarters on a pivotal Sunday. In a riveting and closely-watched electoral contest, the Smer party, helmed by the populist Fico, appeared poised to secure victory, securing nearly 23% of the vote as almost all ballots were tallied. This surge positioned Michal Šimečka’s Progressive Slovakia (PS) in second place with approximately 18%, followed closely by Peter Pellegrini’s Hlas party, which garnered 14% of the vote.
This election outcome promises to intensify concerns regarding Slovakia’s future foreign policy orientation. Fico, aged 59, has made controversial pledges, including halting military assistance to Ukraine, critiquing sanctions imposed on Russia, and vocally opposing LGBTQ+ rights.
Initial exit polls had suggested a lead for PS, raising optimism among the country’s liberal circles. However, as the night unfolded and votes were meticulously counted, those hopes dwindled. Consequently, the composition of Slovakia’s forthcoming government remains uncertain, with complex coalition-building efforts likely with smaller parties such as Hlas and Igor Matovič’s OĽaNO.
Peter Pellegrini, a former colleague of Fico, could emerge as a pivotal figure in this political puzzle. His party has refrained from revealing its preference for a coalition partner but is widely believed to lean toward aligning with Smer, which shares a more conservative stance compared to the socially liberal PS.
The leading party will likely receive a mandate from President Zuzana Čaputová to initiate negotiations for the formation of a parliamentary majority and, if successful, a government.
While the final districts yet to report, primarily from larger cities, may favor PS, the gap behind Fico appears insurmountable.
If Fico’s Smer-SSD party takes the reins of government, Slovakia, a NATO member, would join Hungary in challenging the European Union’s consensus on supporting Ukraine at a critical juncture when the EU is striving for unity in opposing Russia’s ongoing incursions.
Robert Kaliňák, a Smer-SSD candidate and longtime ally of Fico, commented, “We do want to evaluate everything, so we will wait for the final count,” signaling that the party would provide a comprehensive response to the results later on Sunday.
In contrast, the PS party has advocated for maintaining Slovakia’s robust support for Ukraine and is likely to pursue a more liberal stance within the EU, emphasizing issues such as majority voting, environmental policies, and LGBTQ+ rights.
Michal Šimečka, leader of Progressive Slovakia, remains undeterred in his aspiration to potentially form the next government, contingent on the final vote shares of prospective smaller allies. He conveyed to supporters his commitment to establishing a stable, pro-European government that upholds the rule of law and invests in critical areas for Slovakia’s future.
The incoming government will inherit the challenging task of managing a growing budget deficit, projected to be the highest in the Eurozone, in a country of 5.5 million people.
Fico’s electoral success has been fueled by dissatisfaction with the previous center-right coalition government, which collapsed last year, leading to this early election. His campaign underscored concerns about an increase in migrants passing through Slovakia en route to Western Europe.
Fico’s views align with the traditionally warm sentiments toward Russia held by many Slovaks, sentiments that have gained momentum on social media since the onset of the Ukraine conflict. He has also pledged to cease military supplies to Ukraine and advocate for peace talks, a stance reminiscent of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán but rejected by Ukraine and its allies, who argue that such a position would only embolden Russia.
Early results and media projections suggest that the far-right Republika party, while potentially an ally for Fico, may not secure any seats.
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