Artificial intelligence will affect 40% of jobs across the world and it is “crucial” that countries build social safety nets to mitigate the impact on vulnerable workers, according to the head of the International Monetary Fund.
AI, the term for computer systems that can do tasks usually associated with human levels of intelligence, is set to profoundly transform the global economy ,with advanced economies facing a higher risk of disruption.
IMF analysis, the international lender of last resort, says about 60% of jobs in advanced economies such as the US and UK are exposed to AI and half of these jobs may be negatively affected. However ,the technology will also boost some humans’ productivity as AI improves their performance, it said.
According to the IMF, the safest highly exposed jobs are those with a “high complementarity” to AI, meaning the technology will assists their work rather than displaces it purely .This includes roles with a high degree of responsibility and interacting with people – such as surgeons, lawyers and judges.
High-exposed jobs with “low complementarity” – meaning the potential for being displaced by AI – include telemarketing, or cold-calling people to offer goods or services. Low-exposed occupations include dishwashers and performers, the IMF said.
AI jobs exposure is 40% in emerging market economies – defined by the IMF as states such as China, Brazil and India – and 26% for low-income countries, with an overall total of just under 40%, according to the IMF.
Generative AI – the term for technology that can generate highly plausible text, images and even voice from simple hand-typed prompts – has worried political agenda since the emergence of tools such as the ChatGPT chatbot.
Kristalina Georgieva, the head of the IMF, said AI’s ability to influence highly skilled jobs means that advanced economies face higher risks from the technology. She added that in extreme cases some jobs in major economies could displace.
“nearly half the exposed jobs may benefit from AI integration, boosting productivity,” wrote Georgieva, in a blogpost accompanying the IMF research. “For the other half, AI applications may take on crucial tasks currently done by humans, which could reduce labour demand, causing low wages and few hiring. In the most extreme cases, some of these jobs may disappear.”
She further added that in most scenarios AI would probably deepen overall inequality across the global economy and could stoke social tensions without political intervention. AI is expected to feature prominently as a topic of discussion at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week, which top executives from the tech world will attend.
“It is crucial for countries to establish broader social safety nets and offer retraining programmes for vulnerable workers,” Georgieva said. “In doing so, we can make the AI transition more inclusive, saving livelihoods and curbing inequality.”
The IMF analysis shows that high-wage earners whose jobs have high complementarity with AI can expect an increase in their income, causing an increase in inequality.
“This would amplify the rise in income and wealth inequality that results from enhanced capital returns that accrue to high earners,” the IMF report said. “Countries’ choices regarding the definition of AI property rights, as well as redistributive and other fiscal policies, will definitely shape its impact on income and wealth distribution.”
The report said workers in the UK, with its high proportion of graduates, might be better prepared to switch from jobs at risk of displacement to “high complementarity” jobs, however, the older workers may struggle to adapt and switch to new jobs or retrain.
Last year, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said the professions at highest risk from AI-driven automation were highly skilled jobs and representing about 27% of employment across its 38 member countries, which include the UK, Japan, Germany, the US, Australia and Canada. It said skilled professions such as law, medicine and finance were most at risk.
