Yerevan, Armenia – In a momentous decision that could have far-reaching diplomatic repercussions, Armenia’s parliament has cast its ballot in favor of joining the International Criminal Court (ICC), thereby obliging the nation to apprehend Russian President Vladimir Putin should he set foot on Armenian soil.
This consequential verdict, reached on Tuesday, is poised to exacerbate the already strained relations between Armenia and its historical ally, Russia. The fractures in this alliance have deepened significantly due to Russia’s military incursion into Ukraine and Azerbaijan’s successful recapture of Nagorno-Karabakh.
The Kremlin, in response to Armenia’s ICC accession, issued a stern warning to its erstwhile partner, labeling the move as “extremely hostile.” This stemmed from the ICC’s issuance of an arrest warrant for President Putin, alleging his complicity in the abduction of Ukrainian children.
Armenia’s Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, has sought to allay Moscow’s concerns, emphasizing that the nation’s intention is solely to address alleged war crimes committed by Azerbaijan during the protracted conflict with its neighbor, and not to target Russia.
However, Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson, expressed strong disapproval of Armenia’s ICC decision, branding it “inappropriate” in the context of their bilateral relations. Peskov unequivocally stated Russia’s disagreement with Pashinyan’s assertion that Armenia turned to the Rome Statute, which established the ICC, due to perceived inadequacies in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Armenian-Russian partnership regarding the nation’s security.
He asserted, “The Armenian side doesn’t have mechanisms better than those, and we are sure about that.” Peskov did not confirm whether President Putin would refrain from visiting Armenia as a consequence of this parliamentary move but hinted at the possibility, saying, “Of course, we wouldn’t like the president to have to abstain from visits to Armenia for any reasons.”
Notably, Russia has maintained a military base in Armenia and played a pivotal role in ensuring security, including managing tensions over Nagorno-Karabakh. However, during Azerbaijan’s offensive in the disputed region, Moscow made it abundantly clear that its troops would not intervene.
Richard Giragosian, head of the Regional Studies Centre in Yerevan, opined that Armenia’s ratification of the ICC treaty represents a deliberate effort by Pashinyan to diminish Moscow’s influence. He contended, “The ICC ratification by Armenia is mainly motivated by its desire to prepare legal challenges against Azerbaijan. But it also sends a clear message to Moscow… It is part of a consistent escalation in measures taken by Armenia to stand up for itself and challenge its relationship with Moscow… Yerevan is seeking to diversify its security.”
In recent weeks, Armenia hosted joint military exercises with US troops, a notable development in the nation’s evolving international engagements. Furthermore, Armenia dispatched humanitarian aid to Ukraine, personally delivered by Prime Minister Pashinyan’s wife, Anna Hakobyan.
France’s Foreign Minister, Catherine Colonna, conducted an official visit to Armenia on Tuesday to assess the nation’s urgent requirements in the face of an influx of refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh and the looming threat of Azerbaijani military actions on Armenian territory.
The implications of President Putin’s potential inability to travel to Armenia, a country he last visited in 2022, are emblematic of his diminishing influence in the South Caucasus region. This symbolic development comes in the wake of Putin’s absence from the BRICS summit in South Africa in August, amid speculations of ICC-related apprehensions.
Alexander Gabuev, Director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre in Berlin, underscored Russia’s reduced role as a security provider in its neighboring regions, primarily attributable to the contentious Ukraine conflict. He noted, “Russia’s role as a provider of security in its near-abroad has been severely diminished as a result of its disastrous war against Ukraine. The destabilizing effects will continue to be felt across the vast Eurasian landmass.”
Meanwhile, Azerbaijan continues its crackdown on the leadership of Nagorno-Karabakh following its territorial acquisition. Recent developments include the arrest of two former heads of the breakaway region and the former parliament speaker, all of whom have been transferred to Baku, according to Azerbaijani state media. Azerbaijani authorities have also initiated criminal proceedings against 300 separatist officials. These events underscore the complex geopolitical landscape in the South Caucasus and the enduring challenges faced by the region.
