Mumbai/New Delhi, As India pursues an ambitious target of 100 gigawatts of nuclear capacity by 2047, French and Russian nuclear giants are intensifying efforts to secure a dominant share of what is emerging as one of the world’s largest civilian nuclear markets, valued at an estimated $186bn for construction alone.
The prize is substantial. India currently operates just under 8GW of nuclear capacity across 24 reactors, contributing roughly 3 per cent of electricity generation. Government plans call for a more than twelvefold increase over the next two decades, lifting nuclear’s share to around 9 per cent by mid-century. With fuel supply, long-term servicing and potential life-extension programmes factored in, the total commercial opportunity could run into hundreds of billions of dollars.
Russia seeks to deepen an entrenched position
Rosatom, Russia’s state-owned nuclear corporation, enjoys a clear first-mover advantage. At the Kudankulam site in Tamil Nadu, four 1,000MW VVER reactors are either operational or nearing completion, with two additional units under construction. Moscow is now pressing New Delhi to approve a further phase using the more advanced 1,200MW VVER-1200 design.
Senior Rosatom executives, including chief executive Alexey Likhachev, have positioned India not merely as a customer but as a strategic manufacturing and human-capital hub. Standardisation of components, localisation of supply chains and the training of thousands of Indian engineers are central to Moscow’s pitch. Recent high-level talks in Mumbai also reportedly included proposals for small modular reactors (SMRs) and even floating nuclear power plants, concepts already deployed domestically in Russia’s Arctic region.
France mounts a late but determined challenge
France, by contrast, is playing catch-up. The long-stalled plan to build six 1,650MW European Pressurised Reactors (EPRs) at Jaitapur in Maharashtra remains the centrepiece of Paris’s ambitions, though progress has been hampered by pricing disputes and land-acquisition delays.
In a sign of renewed commitment, Framatome – the nuclear engineering arm of state-controlled EDF – opened a dedicated office in Navi Mumbai in September 2025. The facility is intended to serve as an engineering, training and recruitment hub, leveraging existing French subsidiaries already active in India (among them Jeumont Electric and simulator specialist Corys). French executives emphasise a shift from pure equipment sales towards a service-oriented model encompassing long-term maintenance, digital upgrades and, eventually, participation in India’s nascent SMR programme.
Localisation: the non-negotiable condition
For both bidders, technology transfer and domestic manufacturing have become obligatory. New Delhi insists that future projects deliver substantial “Make in India” content, joint production of critical components, and the progressive indigenisation of safety systems and digital instrumentation. The Kudankulam experience has already created a cadre of Indian specialists in welding, quality assurance and civil works; policymakers now want to move further up the value chain.
Strategic and geopolitical overlay
Beyond economics, nuclear co-operation carries unmistakable strategic weight. Russia’s entrenched presence reflects decades of Indo-Russian defence and energy ties that have endured Western sanctions. France, meanwhile, is positioning itself as a partner within the broader Indo-Pacific framework, aligning with India’s efforts to diversify technology sources while maintaining cordial relations with both Moscow and Washington.
The US remains a peripheral player in reactor sales but retains influence in fuel-cycle discussions and regulatory harmonisation.
Financing and execution risks
The scale of the build-out is daunting. State utility NTPC alone has signalled willingness to invest up to $62bn for 30GW of new capacity, typically in joint ventures. Private conglomerates and even Indian Railways have begun exploring nuclear options for captive power and high-speed corridors.
Yet execution risks abound: chronic delays, cost overruns, land disputes and the still-evolving regulatory framework for SMRs could derail timelines. Safety remains an overriding public and political concern; any serious incident would carry severe repercussions in a country still mindful of the 2011 Fukushima disaster.
Baseload in an intermittent world
India’s electricity demand is forecast by the International Energy Agency to triple by 2050, driven by urbanisation, air-conditioning loads and the rapid expansion of data centres and electrified transport. While solar and wind will dominate incremental capacity, their intermittency underscores the value of dispatchable, low-carbon baseload that nuclear can provide – particularly as India seeks to curb reliance on imported coal.
For international vendors, the Indian market represents a rare combination of scale, longevity and geopolitical significance. Over the coming decade, the outcome of the Franco-Russian contest will do much to shape not only India’s energy mix but also the global civilian nuclear industry’s centre of gravity.
