The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a forecast indicating the development of a low-pressure system over the northwest and west-central Bay of Bengal within the next 24 hours. This system is anticipated to intensify and move in a west-northwest direction, making landfall along the coasts of south Odisha and North Andhra Pradesh. Consequently, widespread rain is expected to prevail over northwest India until Saturday.
Additionally, a trough extending from southwest Uttar Pradesh to the Bay of Bengal is poised to trigger thunderstorms and isolated heavy rainfall over southern Uttar Pradesh today, followed by Uttarakhand, which can anticipate similar weather conditions from Wednesday to Saturday.
As of Monday, monsoon rains in northwest India have recorded a marginal 1% deficit compared to normal levels since the season commenced on June 1.
On Tuesday, the monsoon trough was positioned south of its typical location, signifying an active monsoon phase.
Recent rains have aided in reducing the seasonal rainfall deficit to 10%. Over the next five days, states including Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, Jharkhand, and several northeastern regions are predicted to receive substantial rainfall.
Various regions are poised to experience light to moderate rainfall and thunderstorms. Odisha can anticipate such conditions through Friday, Jharkhand from Wednesday to Friday, and Gangetic West Bengal until Thursday. Isolated areas in Odisha may experience exceptionally heavy rainfall today and during Wednesday-Thursday.
Notably, East and Northeast India have observed a 19% reduction in rainfall, with a total of 966.7 mm recorded between June 1 and September 11, compared to the normal seasonal figures. Meanwhile, a shifting cyclonic circulation is set to bring heavy rainfall to several central Indian states until Saturday.
Since June 1, rainfall in central India and the South Peninsula has been 9% below the seasonal average. North coastal Andhra Pradesh is expected to witness heavy rainfall today, with Kerala and the ghat areas of Tamil Nadu also forecasted to receive rainfall.
The monsoon, which has seen a late revival fueled by weather systems originating from the South China Sea and West Pacific, is potentially set to remain robust until the end of September, potentially causing a delay in its withdrawal. Various eastern regions, including Uttar Pradesh, parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, Mumbai, and Konkan, are expected to receive heavy rainfall following an active wet spell over the past ten days.
