New Delhi:The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s climate prediction center has forecasted a “strong” El Nino event in the Northern Hemisphere from March-May 2024. There’s a 1 in 3 chance that this weather event could be “historically strong,” referred to as a “Super El Nino.”
El Nino, characterized by warming waters in the Pacific Ocean near South America, is known to significantly influence extreme weather events globally, impacting food production, water availability, and ecosystems.
The prediction indicates a 75%-80% chance of a strong El Nino next year, leading to sea surface temperatures at least 1.5°C warmer than average. There’s also a 30% chance that temperatures may rise by over 2°C, similar to historical events in 1997-98 and 2015-16, which caused extreme temperatures, droughts, and flooding worldwide.
In the United States, a strong El Nino typically brings drier and warmer conditions to northern regions and wetter weather with slightly cooler temperatures in the southern parts during winter.
In India, El Nino is generally associated with weakening Monsoon winds and dry weather, potentially leading to reduced rainfall during the monsoon season. A “Super El Nino” can disrupt typical weather patterns in India, causing unusual and sometimes extreme weather events, including heavy rainfall and flooding in some areas and extended dry spells in others. However, its impact appears to be less pronounced in southern India compared to the northern regions.
Historically, at least half of the El Nino years caused droughts during the Monsoon season, with all-India rainfall being lower than 90% of the long-term average. The intensity of this weather event is highly dependent on oceanic and atmospheric conditions, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) plans to update its predictions in November based on the latest data.
