In a significant geopolitical development, American and Saudi officials are currently engaged in discussions to establish a mutual defense treaty. This treaty, resembling the existing military alliances between the U.S. and allies such as Japan and South Korea, is being proposed with the aim of encouraging Saudi Arabia to normalize its relations with Israel, according to a report by The New York Times.
Under the prospective agreement, both nations would commit to providing military support in the event of an attack on either party, whether within the region or on Saudi Arabian territory.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is concurrently seeking the Biden administration’s assistance in developing a civilian nuclear program for his country. Some U.S. officials, however, harbor concerns that this program could serve as a veiled cover for potential nuclear weapons development as a countermeasure against Iran.
The formulation of such a treaty with Saudi Arabia, akin to existing American alliances, is expected to face robust opposition in Congress. Many lawmakers, including prominent Democrats, view the Saudi government as an unreliable partner with scant regard for U.S. interests and human rights.
This endeavor prompts a critical inquiry into whether President Biden’s pursuit of normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia is inadvertently deepening U.S. military involvement in the Middle East. Such an outcome would seem contradictory to the administration’s stated objective of redirecting military resources away from the region towards addressing challenges posed by China.
Crucially, discussions between the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and Israel primarily revolve around Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s demands. Diplomatic negotiations in this regard are anticipated to gain momentum during President Biden’s meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the United Nations General Assembly in New York.
During his recent address at the UNGA, President Biden underscored the benefits of nations normalizing ties with Israel.
Contrary to existing U.S. military presence in Japan and South Korea, there are currently no substantial talks regarding deploying a sizable contingent to Saudi Arabia under any new defense agreement.
Notably, the distinct defense pacts with Japan and South Korea emerged in the aftermath of devastating mid-20th-century wars and during the intensification of the Cold War. These circumstances prompted the United States to forge global alliances aimed at countering the Soviet Union’s global influence.
As of June, the Pentagon maintains a presence of just under 2,700 American troops in Saudi Arabia, as communicated in a letter from the White House to Congress.
The President’s pursuit of a Saudi-Israeli accord represents a significant strategic shift, given his campaign pledge in 2020 to isolate Saudi Arabia internationally.
However, U.S. officials argue that a diplomatic agreement would serve as a pivotal symbol in de-escalating tensions in the Arab-Israeli context and could bear geopolitical significance by pulling Saudi Arabia further from China’s sphere of influence, countering Beijing’s efforts to expand in the Middle East.
While Secretary of State Antony Blinken has expressed the transformative potential of normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel, he also cautions that achieving such an agreement remains a formidable challenge.
The State Department refrains from commenting on specific details of these discussions, as reported by The New York Times.
In recent months, White House officials have provided briefings on these negotiations to influential Democratic lawmakers. Convincing these lawmakers to endorse the treaty is crucial for the administration.
A majority of Senate Democrats have consistently voted to restrict U.S. arms sales and security cooperation with Riyadh, citing objections to Saudi actions in Yemen and the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018, a murder attributed to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, despite his denials.
The Saudi-led conflict in Yemen, initiated in 2015, has led to significant civilian casualties and what the United Nations has termed “the worst man-made humanitarian crisis in the world.”
Democratic legislators are also pressing the Biden administration for answers regarding reports of Saudi border forces allegedly causing the deaths of hundreds or possibly thousands of African migrants attempting to cross from Yemen. In August, Human Rights Watch released a report on these alleged atrocities, which Saudi Arabia denies.
Michael Green, a former National Security Council director during President George W. Bush’s tenure, highlights that the defense treaties with Japan and South Korea possess a robust commitment to U.S. military involvement in case of hostilities.
In contrast, obtaining a treaty with Saudi Arabia, given the persistent tensions in the Middle East and the nation’s active role in the Yemen conflict, would necessitate surpassing a considerably higher political threshold, Green adds.