In a groundbreaking revelation, scientists at the National Centre for Polar and Ocean Research (NCPOR) have identified a concerning link between the warming Arctic region and the surge in tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea. Published in the journal Nature, the research underscores the potential for heightened cyclone activity in the Arabian Sea in the coming decades.
Lead author P J Vidya, a scientist at NCPOR, highlighted that the Arabian Sea witnessed a surge in cyclone formation during the post-monsoon season from 1998 to 2021. The study attributes this phenomenon to increased ocean and atmosphere warming, coupled with reduced vertical wind shear, resulting in the intensification of tropical cyclones.
Of particular concern is the impact of the rapidly warming Arctic region, where temperatures are rising nearly four times faster than the global average. Vidya emphasized that the remote connection between the Arctic and the Arabian Sea is a key driver behind the recent surge and intensification of tropical cyclones.
The Arabian Sea has experienced notable surface and subsurface warming in recent years, contributing to the formation of thunderstorms, squalls, and increased rainfall. Vidya warned that this enhanced warming is likely to favor the intensification of cyclones along the western coast.
While the Arabian Sea’s cyclone contribution to the global frequency is modest at 2%, the study underscores the disproportionately high loss of life associated with these events. The NCPOR research scrutinized factors driving the increasing trend in cyclone formation during the post-monsoon season (October-December) in the Arabian Sea from 1998 to 2021.
Large-scale atmospheric circulation linked to the warming Arctic weakens vertical wind shear over the Arabian Sea. Low vertical wind shear allows cyclones to strengthen, while high shear disrupts their formation. The study emphasizes the need for heightened awareness and preparedness given the anticipated escalation of cyclone intensity along the western coast.
