New Delhi, In a mid-year outlook, aviation consultancy firm Capa India predicts that around 200 aircraft in the Indian aviation industry may be grounded by the end of this financial year. IndiGo is expected to be the most affected, with over 90 of its aircraft likely to be grounded, followed by Air India and SpiceJet each grounding 25-30 aircraft. Additionally, Go First has already grounded 54 aircraft since suspending flights in May.
The overall fleet size for the sector is projected to be close to 790 aircraft by March 2024, with 588 expected to be operational. Capa India also anticipates delays in aircraft deliveries for Akasa Air, India’s youngest airline.
The domestic and international passenger traffic for the current financial year is estimated to be around 155 million and 70 million passengers, respectively. Supply chain issues pose a significant risk, potentially impacting the ability of mainline scheduled airlines to operate UDAN flights.
In terms of airfares, despite a capacity shortage, the return of normalcy is noted. Average fares declined by 12.7% in the September quarter, and while some weakness is expected in the March quarter, full-year yields are likely to be around 3% lower on a yearly basis. This may lead to higher losses for full-service carriers like Air India and Vistara compared to earlier projections.
Capa India remains optimistic about growth momentum in the market, emphasizing the increasing focus on international operations, which are expected to receive a greater share of planned capacity.
