In a significant development, China has released its eagerly anticipated methane reduction plan, signaling the nation’s progress toward a new climate agreement with the United States.
Beijing initially committed to reducing methane emissions at the 2021 Cop26 summit in Glasgow, as part of a joint accord with the US. However, for two years, the methane reduction plan remained conspicuously absent. The plan’s unveiling on Tuesday, coinciding with the conclusion of four days of talks between US and Chinese climate envoys in Sunnylands, California, suggests that the two nations may be on the verge of forging a new climate agreement. This could set the stage for a forthcoming presidential meeting and the UN’s climate conference, COP28, scheduled for the end of this month.
The venue for the Xie Zhenhua-John Kerry meeting was perceived by some as an auspicious choice. Sunnylands is the luxurious estate where China’s leader, Xi Jinping, held his first presidential meeting with Barack Obama in 2013.
Xi and Joe Biden, the US president, are anticipated to meet at the Apec summit in San Francisco next week. The Xie-Kerry meeting serves as groundwork for a potential climate agreement.
The Xi-Obama meeting in 2013 laid the groundwork for the historic US-China climate agreement in 2014, in which China committed to peak CO2 emissions by 2030, a target it is expected to achieve ahead of schedule. This agreement was the foundation for the Paris Agreement the following year, in which 196 countries pledged to limit the global average temperature increase to below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels.
Expectations are cautiously optimistic that a new US-China climate accord may be on the horizon. Li Shuo, the incoming director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Policy Institute, views it as a “golden opportunity.” Nonetheless, significant challenges are anticipated in reaching an agreement, especially concerning specific commitments.
The newly unveiled methane reduction plan, for example, refrains from setting numerical targets. Byford Tsang, senior policy adviser at E3G, a climate change think tank, noted that China is hesitant about making international pledges, preferring not to have its hands tied on the global stage.
The United States, along with over 150 other nations, has committed to reducing methane emissions by 30% by 2030. China has not yet made such a pledge. Analysts suggest that the willingness to progress with a methane reduction plan reflects the state of US-China relations.
Another contentious issue is the reduction of fossil fuel emissions, particularly the phasing out of coal. China is the world’s largest greenhouse gas producer, with nearly 90% stemming from the energy sector, of which over 60% is coal-based. Despite coal phaseout being a crucial element of China’s goal to achieve net zero emissions by 2060, the government’s focus on energy security since power shortages in 2021 has made the topic more sensitive.
While Xi called for a gradual reduction of traditional energy sources in January last year, local incentives still support the approval of new coal power plants, even if they do not align with China’s energy requirements.
Kerry and Xie hold differing views on the coal issue. Kerry advocates for coal to be a central focus of COP28 negotiations, while Xie has referred to the complete phasing out of fossil fuels as “unrealistic.” Nevertheless, there is hope that some form of climate agreement will emerge soon, providing a foundation for new climate objectives. With a presidential meeting on the horizon, both sides recognize the current window as a unique opportunity to make progress.