New Delhi:For the first time since their nuclear tests in 1998, India has surpassed Pakistan in the number of nuclear warheads, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). India now holds a slight edge with two more warheads than Pakistan.
The SIPRI report, released during the Eid holidays, highlights the escalating global reliance on nuclear weapons amid intensifying geopolitical tensions.
Historically, Western assessments, including those from SIPRI and the International Panel on Fissile Materials (IPFM), indicated that Pakistan had a slight lead over India in nuclear weapons, usually by a margin of five to ten warheads. However, the 2023 assessments show India marginally ahead.
Nuclear Arsenals and Modernisation
The SIPRI report reveals that all nuclear powers are modernising their arsenals and deploying new nuclear-capable weapon systems. These assessments rely on satellite imagery of uranium enrichment facilities and plutonium production plants, though the specific methodologies remain undisclosed, raising questions about their precision.
Both India and Pakistan maintain high levels of secrecy regarding their nuclear programs, seldom commenting on or validating Western assessments, making it difficult to verify the reported figures. Some argue that Western estimates of South Asian nuclear capabilities are politically motivated, noting that India’s comprehensive nuclear program and strategic advantages would logically place it ahead of Pakistan.
India, with its extensive air, ground, and sea-based nuclear delivery systems and substantial uranium reserves, has a robust nuclear capability. The 2008 Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) waiver allowed India to import large amounts of nuclear fuel, conserving its indigenous uranium for potential weapons development.
India’s Nuclear Arsenal
As of January 2024, India’s nuclear arsenal comprises approximately 172 nuclear weapons, a slight increase from the previous year. India is developing a nuclear triad that includes aircraft, land-based missiles, and nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs). Traditionally, India has kept warheads and launchers separate during peacetime, but recent shifts suggest some warheads may now be pre-attached to launchers.
India’s nuclear strategy aims to deter both Pakistan and China. Initially targeting Pakistan with shorter-range weapons, India’s development of longer-range missiles now also focuses on China. India maintains a no-first-use (NFU) policy, with potential nuclear responses to non-nuclear attacks as part of its strategy.
India’s airborne nuclear capability includes aircraft like the Mirage 2000H, Jaguar IS, and Rafale, with about 48 nuclear gravity bombs assigned to these platforms. Its land-based missile arsenal features several types of ballistic missiles, with newer models like the Agni-P nearing deployment. The sea-based leg of the triad is expanding, with four to six SSBNs planned, enhancing India’s second-strike capabilities.
Pakistan’s Nuclear Arsenal
As of January 2024, Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is estimated at around 170 warheads, consistent with previous years. These are distributed across Pakistan’s emerging nuclear triad, which includes aircraft, ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles, and sea-launched cruise missiles.
Pakistan’s military doctrine does not adhere to an NFU policy, reserving the right to pre-emptive nuclear strikes, particularly due to perceived conventional force imbalances with India. This stance is supported by a focus on non-strategic nuclear weapons as a counter to India’s ‘Cold Start’ doctrine.
Pakistan’s air-delivered nuclear force includes gravity bombs and developing cruise missiles like the Ra’ad (Hatf-8), with combat aircraft such as the Mirage-III, Mirage-V, F-16, and JF-17 considered potential nuclear delivery platforms. The land-based arsenal includes an estimated 126 short- and medium-range missile systems, featuring the Shaheen and Ghauri series. Pakistan is also exploring MIRV technology with the Ababeel missile, responding to India’s advanced missile defenses.
For its sea-based nuclear capabilities, Pakistan is developing the Babur-3 submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM) to equip its Agosta-90B submarines, advancing its second-strike capabilities. However, analysts claim Pakistan lacks a suitable submarine platform for nuclear weapons, lagging behind India in assured second-strike capability.
Global Nuclear Landscape
The report indicates that all nine nuclear-armed countries—the US, Russia, the UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel—are modernising their arsenals. The global total number of nuclear warheads is estimated at 12,121, with 9,585 in military stockpiles. About 2,100 warheads are on high operational alert, primarily by Russia and the US, with China recently joining this group.
These modernization efforts include upgrades to existing arsenals and the development of new technologies like multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs), pursued by India, Pakistan, and North Korea. This could lead to a rapid increase in deployable warheads, heightening the potential for widespread destruction in conflict scenarios.
