Despite mounting concerns over surging inflation and persistent unemployment, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government maintains a firm grip on his personal popularity, positioning him favorably for a potential third term in next year’s elections, according to a significant survey released by India Today magazine.
The survey’s findings indicate a notable uptick in the popularity of main opposition leader Rahul Gandhi, while a recently formed 26-party opposition coalition named “INDIA” is anticipated to gain ground, challenging the ruling establishment.
Although Prime Minister Modi faces criticism for grappling with the country’s economic woes, he remains far ahead of Rahul Gandhi, enjoying a substantial 36-point advantage as the preferred candidate to lead India. Should elections be held presently, his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is projected to secure 287 seats in the 542-member lower house of parliament, as indicated by the “Mood of the Nation” survey.
National elections are scheduled for May 2024, although numerous state elections are expected to precede that date. Modi first ascended to power in 2014, promising transformative change and has since consolidated his influence through welfare initiatives, infrastructure enhancement, and a robust emphasis on Hindu nationalism.
Critics contend that the government’s assertive stance has resulted in the dominance of the BJP’s narrative across mainstream media outlets and social platforms, which, at times, has eclipsed dissenting viewpoints.
In the backdrop of India’s flourishing economy, retail inflation has surged to a 15-month high of 7.44 percent in July, primarily propelled by a steep rise in food prices, which have spiked to 11.5 percent, the highest level in over three-and-a-half years. Despite India being the fastest-growing major economy globally, grappling with an unyielding unemployment rate of around 8 percent presents a significant challenge.
Economists argue that India must generate 70 million new jobs in the next decade, although projections indicate that only 24 million are likely to materialize.
The biannual India Today survey, encompassing over 160,000 respondents polled between July 15 and August 14, uncovered that 59 percent expressed satisfaction with the performance of Modi’s government, a notable dip from the 67 percent recorded in the previous January survey. Correspondingly, 63 percent approved of Modi’s performance as prime minister, down from 72 percent in January. Concomitantly, 22 percent regarded his performance unfavorably, marking an increase from 16 percent in January.
Yashwant Deshmukh, a psephologist with the C-Voter agency that conducted the India Today poll, elucidated that the correlation between inflation rise and dissatisfaction levels is conspicuous. Nevertheless, Deshmukh highlighted Modi’s enduring popularity after nearly a decade in power, attributing it to a perceived sense of trustworthiness and his proactive initiatives.
The survey also underscored Rahul Gandhi’s resurgence in public approval, with 32 percent asserting he is the best-suited figure to rejuvenate his party’s prospects. The data indicated that Gandhi, who led the Congress party through a dismal performance in the 2019 elections, has successfully resuscitated his image through a sustained “unify India march” that spanned five months across the nation. Furthermore, the survey highlighted his ascent as the preferred opposition leader to potentially assume the prime ministerial mantle, with a 24 percent endorsement, a substantial rise from 13 percent in January.
Gandhi’s efforts culminated in the formation of the INDIA coalition, uniting influential regional parties with a strong presence in the south and east, traditionally areas of BJP vulnerability.
