In a damning revelation, a United Nations report has unveiled the concerning expansion intentions of the world’s fossil fuel producers. Nations such as Saudi Arabia, the United States, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are charting a course that would egregiously exceed the planet’s carbon budget, imperiling humanity’s future. Experts have vehemently decried these plans as “insanity.”
These expansion blueprints run directly counter to the climate policies and commitments made by petrostates. The report paints a stark picture of the catastrophic consequences of these ambitions, with projections indicating a staggering 460% increase in coal production, an 83% surge in gas production, and a 29% rise in oil production by 2030, far surpassing the limits imposed by the internationally agreed-upon 1.5-degree Celsius temperature rise target. Furthermore, these plans would result in a 69% excess of fossil fuel production, far exceeding the riskier 2-degree Celsius threshold.
The countries primarily responsible for planned fossil fuel production emissions are India (coal), Saudi Arabia (oil), and Russia (coal, oil, and gas). The United States and Canada also feature prominently on the list of major oil producers. It is noteworthy that the UAE is set to host the pivotal UN climate summit, Cop28, which commences on November 30.
The heart of the climate crisis lies in the stark conflict between the imperative to swiftly eliminate fossil fuel consumption and the unwavering pursuit of trillions of dollars in profits through expanded production. Inger Andersen, the executive director of the UN Environment Programme, lamented, “The addiction to fossil fuels still has its claws deep in many nations. These plans throw humanity’s future into question. Governments must stop saying one thing and doing another.”
Neil Grant, an analyst at the Climate Analytics thinktank and one of the report’s authors, remarked, “Despite their climate promises, governments plan on plowing yet more money into a dirty, dying industry, while opportunities abound in a flourishing clean energy sector. On top of economic insanity, it is a climate disaster of our own making.”
The report scrutinizes the expansion strategies of 20 major fossil fuel-producing nations, accounting for a staggering 84% of CO2 emissions in 2021. Of these nations, 17 have pledged to reach net-zero emissions. Michael Lazarus of the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), a lead author of the report, highlighted the issue of nations seeking to maximize their individual production rather than pursuing a coordinated global phase-out of fossil fuels.
Numerous scientific studies have repeatedly concluded that any new oil and gas ventures are fundamentally incompatible with the goal of staying below the 1.5-degree Celsius global warming limit agreed upon in the Paris Agreement. The Guardian previously exposed the existence of multiple “carbon bomb” oil and gas projects planned by the world’s largest fossil fuel corporations in 2022.
The new report analyzed the expansion plans of major fossil fuel producers using publicly available data. It found that the gap between planned production and what is consistent with adhering to the 1.5-degree Celsius global heating target has remained as substantial as when it was first assessed in 2019. The estimated gap in 2030 is a staggering 20 billion tonnes of CO2, equivalent to about half of current global annual emissions.
Following Saudi Arabia, the United States, Brazil, Canada, and the UAE have the most extensive oil expansion plans. Qatar leads in gas expansion ambitions, with Nigeria following closely behind Russia. India’s coal expansion aspirations are notably extensive, exceeding those of Russia, Indonesia, and Australia.
In this disconcerting scenario, only four countries have outlined plans for an overall reduction in emissions from the fossil fuels they produce: the United Kingdom, China, Norway, and Germany.
The report underscores the inherent risk of relying on uncertain technology to capture and sequester CO2 underground. It urges countries to set targets for a near-complete phase-out of coal production by 2040 and a combined reduction in oil and gas production and usage by three-quarters by 2050, at a minimum.
Notably, these expansion projects run the risk of becoming stranded assets, incurring substantial financial losses, should global efforts to curb CO2 emissions and tackle the climate crisis gain traction.
Romain Ioualalen of the research group Oil Change International asserted that five affluent global North countries, including the United States, Canada, Australia, Norway, and the United Kingdom, are primarily responsible for the majority (51%) of planned new oil and gas extraction through 2050. These nations bear the moral and historical responsibility to lead by example and phase out fossil fuel production urgently.
Fossil fuels, long recognized as the root cause of the climate crisis, have been a glaring absence from the discourse of UN summits until as recently as 2021. The 26th UN climate meeting, where a “phase down” of coal was first mentioned, marks a turning point in addressing the role of fossil fuels in climate action.
With Cop28 on the horizon, there is a resounding call for nations to unite behind a managed and equitable phase-out of coal, oil, and gas to alleviate the turbulent path ahead and benefit all inhabitants of our planet. As UN Secretary-General António Guterres put it, “Governments are literally doubling down on fossil fuel production – that spells double trouble for people and planet. Fossil fuels are sending essential climate goals up in smoke.”