The ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict has put immense pressure on relationships and alliances in the region. Here’s a comprehensive look at where the neighboring countries stand in this complex web of geopolitical dynamics:
Egypt:Egypt shares borders with both Israel and Gaza. Its historical connection with Hamas, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, has led to a complicated relationship. Egypt signed a formal peace treaty with Israel in 1978, but its populace tends to be more pro-Palestinian. While Egypt has acted as a mediator between Hamas and Israel during conflicts, it remains wary of the idea that it should assume responsibility for Gaza, pointing to its administration of the coastal strip from 1948 to 1967.
Jordan: Similar to Egypt, Jordan has a peace treaty with Israel, dating back to 1994. Jordan’s intricate perspective on Israeli-Palestinian matters is shaped by the presence of over 2 million Palestinian refugees within its borders. Additionally, the administration of Islamic institutions around Jerusalem’s al-Haram al-Sharif is overseen by the Jordanian government, making Jordan a stakeholder in conflicts involving this holy site. Israel is sensitive to Jordan’s position.
Lebanon: Israel has been involved in two significant conflicts with Lebanon, notably in 2006 against Hezbollah, an influential proxy of Iran. Israel has always been concerned about a two-front war involving Hamas and Hezbollah. Recent political stagnation and economic challenges in Lebanon have limited Hezbollah’s actions. While Palestinian factions in Lebanon have fired rockets, it remains uncertain whether Hezbollah is preparing for its own offensive or merely signaling to its supporters.
Syria: Israel has conducted numerous strikes in Syria, largely targeting supply routes and storage facilities for Iranian weapons intended for Hezbollah and Hamas. Although the direct threat to Israel from Syria has diminished, Iranian proxies and assets have a long history of operating in Syria. Israel’s missile strikes on Syrian airports, however, have raised concerns about the potential military use of these runways in the coming weeks.
Iran: Iran, a staunch foe of Israel, has the potential to shape the regional response to an Israeli ground invasion in Gaza. Tehran has previously indicated that it might intervene, employing proxy groups in the Middle East. While Iran possesses the missile capability to reach Israel, the positioning of US and Western naval assets in the region appears to deter Iranian intervention.
Iraq:Recent attacks by Iranian-backed groups on US bases in Iraq add complexity to the situation. The United States maintains around 2,500 troops in Iraq, alongside approximately 1,000 soldiers from other coalition nations. These attacks come as Iran-affiliated factions have escalated threats against the US.
Yemen:Yemen’s Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, have successfully launched drones deep into Saudi Arabia. While their capacity to reach Israel is uncertain, Houthi missiles and drones pose a threat to shipping routes in several strategic waterways. Intercepting missiles and drones launched from Yemen, which could potentially target Israel, has heightened tensions.
The Israel-Hamas conflict, therefore, has wide-reaching implications, potentially involving neighboring countries and impacting regional dynamics.
