Beirut, A surge in regional tensions grips the Middle East as Israel heightens its alert status, anticipating potential escalation with Hezbollah. This follows a strike in Beirut that claimed the life of Saleh Arouri, a prominent leader of the Palestinian Hamas. Widely attributed to Israel, the incident not only exacerbates the conflict dynamics but also raises concerns about a broader regional conflagration.
The killing of Saleh Arouri, the most senior Hamas figure to fall since the recent Gaza war erupted nearly three months ago, provides a psychological boost for Israelis who are still grappling with the aftermath of Hamas’ audacious October 7 attack. However, the intricate implications of Arouri’s demise on the ongoing conflict remain uncertain, given Hamas’ historical resilience in swiftly replacing its top leadership.
Of particular concern is the strike’s location in Hezbollah’s stronghold in southern Beirut, which adds a layer of complexity to the situation. The potential consequences of this event extend beyond the borders of Israel and Palestine, as the low-intensity fighting along the Lebanon border could escalate into a full-blown war. The response of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader since 1992, becomes a pivotal factor in determining the trajectory of events.
Amid almost daily exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and the Israeli military over the Israeli-Lebanese border since the Gaza war’s inception, Nasrallah has shown a reluctance to escalate further. The memories of the month-long 2006 war, during which Beirut and southern Lebanon endured heavy bombardment from Israel, likely influence his caution in avoiding a repeat scenario.
Hezbollah, in response to Arouri’s killing, launched rocket attacks into northern Israel late Tuesday. However, the group did not explicitly tie these actions to the targeted strike. Reports from southern Lebanon indicated heavy Israeli shelling and airstrikes, yet no casualties were reported, and the border area appeared calm by early Wednesday.
Israeli officials have remained tight-lipped about the strike that claimed Arouri’s life, but Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, an Israeli military spokesman, affirmed the country’s high readiness for any scenario.
The international community, especially the United States, is actively engaged in preventing the conflict’s widening. Deploying military assets to the region, Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to play a key role in diplomatic efforts in the coming week.
Arouri, serving as the deputy to Hamas’ supreme political leader Ismail Haniyeh, held a pivotal role in the group’s activities in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. Additionally, he maintained crucial liaisons with Hezbollah, further complicating the already intricate web of alliances and conflicts in the region. The U.S. State Department had designated Arouri as a terrorist, offering a substantial reward for information leading to his apprehension.
In the aftermath of the attack, Haniyeh declared that Hamas remains “more powerful and determined.” The strike claimed the lives of six other Hamas members, including two military commanders. Hezbollah condemned the incident as “a serious attack on Lebanon” and vowed a response, further escalating tensions.
While the primary focus of the conflict remains on Gaza, where Israel seeks a “clear victory” over Hamas, the humanitarian toll continues to rise. The displacement of a significant portion of Gaza’s population and dire conditions in the region have prompted accusations of genocide filed by South Africa with the International Court of Justice. Israel vehemently denies these allegations.
Despite ongoing negotiations, including a multistage plan proposed by Egypt, a comprehensive resolution between Israel and Hamas remains elusive. The killing of Arouri is anticipated to impact the negotiations in the days to come, adding another layer of complexity to the already intricate diplomatic landscape. An Israeli delegation is currently in Cairo to discuss the proposed plan, according to an Egyptian official, who noted that the killing of Arouri is likely to impede the negotiation process for a brief period.
