In a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, a potential 2024 election rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is projected to be closely contested. The poll indicates a marginal 2-point lead for Trump in a head-to-head matchup (38% to 36%), with 26% undecided or considering other options.
President Biden, 81, faces doubts about the economy, border security, and crime. Meanwhile, former President Trump, 77, grapples with ongoing legal challenges related to the 2020 election. A conviction before the Nov. 5, 2024, election could significantly impact his support.
Anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. poses a potential challenge, as the poll suggests he might draw more support from Biden than Trump. In a scenario including Kennedy, Trump’s lead widens to a 5-point advantage.
The poll reveals widespread dissatisfaction with the two-party system, with around 60% of respondents expressing a desire for a third choice.
Key Issues and Candidate Strengths
– Trump is seen as the frontrunner for the Republican nomination.
– Deep concerns about Biden’s age are balanced by continued support for his stance on abortion rights, gun control, climate change, and taxing the ultra-rich.
– Trump maintains an edge on the economy, while Biden leads on abortion-related issues.
The state-by-state Electoral College system and partisan divides mean a few states will play a decisive role in the election, particularly in the seven states closest in 2020.
Trump’s candidacy faces risks tied to criminal trials in 2024, with 31% of Republican respondents stating they wouldn’t vote for him if convicted.
As the political landscape unfolds, the 2024 election promises to be a closely watched and potentially unpredictable race.
Reuters/Ipsos Poll,
