In the aftermath of the Karnataka Assembly elections, data from an in-depth analysis conducted by the Election Commission (EC) paints a bleak picture for the JD(S) party. The report reveals that JD(S) lost deposits in a staggering 139 out of the 209 seats it contested, signifying a significant setback for the party. Consequently, this electoral misfortune paved the way for the Congress party’s triumph in the state.
Historically, political wisdom dictated that the JD(S)’s decline in its stronghold of the Old Mysore region had bolstered the Congress. Notably, Vokkaliga voters from the JD(S) appeared to have transferred their allegiance to the Congress’s Vokkaliga leader from the region, DK Shivakumar, who now holds the position of Deputy Chief Minister.
The EC’s comprehensive data further elucidates that the JD(S) incurred a loss of nearly 15 lakh votes in Karnataka in comparison to the 2018 elections. This translated to a mere 19 seat victories for the party, significantly fewer than the 38 seats it secured in 2018.
Most notably, the data unequivocally establishes that the JD(S)’s electoral decline directly contributed to the Congress’s ascent in the state. The Congress garnered approximately 28 lakh additional votes in the 2023 election compared to 2018, while the BJP gained around 9 lakh votes, according to the EC’s findings. Evidently, the JD(S) experienced a mass exodus of its voters to the Congress in this year’s elections.
In response to this electoral debacle, JD(S) leaders have initiated a concerted effort to rejuvenate the party. HD Deve Gowda, the JD(S) supremo and former Prime Minister, has outlined a roadmap with the aim of securing at least six out of the 28 seats from Karnataka in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections next year.
However, there are looming concerns that the Congress is actively attempting to poach JD(S) MLAs, which could potentially lead to a party split ahead of the General Elections. Reports suggest that the Congress is actively pursuing 13 of the 19 JD(S) MLAs to resign, a move designed to avoid disqualification under the anti-defection law.
To counteract these efforts, the JD(S) has established a 21-member central committee, led by Chamundeshwari MLA GT Deve Gowda, with the goal of bolstering the confidence of party MLAs and maintaining party cohesion.
JD(S) patriarch HD Deve Gowda had initially intended to pass the political mantle to his grandsons, Prajwal Revanna and Nikhil Kumaraswamy. However, the road ahead seems fraught with challenges for the younger generation of the party. A comprehensive overhaul, including party restructuring, is underway to emphasize the party’s traditional values, commitment to the farming community, and present a rejuvenated image.
Moreover, the JD(S) faces legal hurdles, with the Karnataka High Court ruling that Prajwal Revanna’s election to the Lok Sabha seat stands disqualified due to irregularities in his affidavit for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Nevertheless, JD(S) leaders remain optimistic that this matter can be resolved through legal channels.
In light of these developments, the JD(S) is actively working to transcend its image as a family-centric party and broaden its appeal beyond its traditional stronghold in the Old Mysore region and its primary voter base, the Vokkaligas. The 21-member core committee led by GT Deve Gowda is tasked with these endeavors and assessing the feasibility of independent Lok Sabha election contests.
As 2024 approaches, the stakes are high for the JD(S) and the Gowda clan. It remains to be seen whether their concerted efforts will lead to a political resurgence or whether the party will continue to grapple with challenges on its path to recovery.
