The American workforce is ageing more rapidly than at any point in modern history, according to data published this week by the US Census Bureau, posing a structural challenge to economic growth at a time when the Trump administration is pursuing the sharpest restrictions on immigration in generations.
Workers aged 55 and over — the only age cohort to expand consistently for more than two decades — now account for 24 per cent of the US labour force, up from just 10 per cent in 1994. The shift is markedly uneven across industries and geography, the Census Bureau’s Business Dynamics Statistics of Human Capital (BDS-HC) shows, with profound implications for productivity, job creation and fiscal sustainability.
The utilities sector has experienced the most dramatic ageing: by 2022, 80 per cent of employment in the industry was concentrated in firms where at least a quarter of the workforce was over 55, compared with 35 per cent in 2006. Manufacturing and wholesale trade have followed a similar trajectory, rising from 14 per cent in 2000 to more than 40 per cent last year.
In contrast, retail trade and accommodation & food services — sectors traditionally reliant on younger labour — remain youthful: only 14 per cent and 10 per cent respectively of jobs are in firms with a high proportion of older workers.
Regional disparities are equally stark. Maine, the oldest state by median age (44.7 years), has 39 per cent of its employment in firms with at least one-quarter of workers over 55. Utah, the youngest state at a median age of 32, registers just 14 per cent. States with median ages of 39–41, including New York, Pennsylvania and Illinois, all exceed 30 per cent.
Even among older states, industry composition matters. Florida, with a median age of 42.6, has only 25 per cent of employment in such firms, reflecting its heavier weighting towards hospitality and services that still draw younger workers.
The economic consequences are already visible. Firms with 25–50 per cent of employees aged over 55 contracted by roughly 2 per cent a year on average, while those with fewer than 10 per cent older workers grew by a similar magnitude. Start-ups, almost by definition, remain young: 10 per cent of jobs at newly opened establishments are in businesses where more than half the workforce is aged 19–24, compared with just 3 per cent at firms older than 11 years.
At metropolitan level, the demographic pattern is reinforced. Between 2020 and 2023, virtually all of America’s 387 metropolitan areas recorded growth in residents aged 65 and over, while four-fifths saw declines in the 0–14 age group. Large coastal centres such as New York, Los Angeles and Chicago have lost children in absolute terms; younger, faster-growing interiors — Provo-Orem in Utah and parts of Texas — have retained lower median ages and higher birth rates.
Economists have long warned that an older workforce, combined with declining prime-age participation and slowing population growth, risks lower trend GDP growth and rising dependency ratios. The Census data underline how far the process has already advanced — and how politically contentious any policy response is likely to be under an administration committed to sweeping curbs on both legal and illegal immigration.
With labour force growth now almost entirely dependent on workers delaying retirement, the debate over immigration is no longer merely cultural or security-driven; it has become central to the country’s long-term economic prospects.
