In its most recent World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has projected that India’s demand for electricity to power household air-conditioners is anticipated to increase by a factor of nine by the year 2050. Remarkably, this surge in demand is expected to surpass the entire power consumption of the African continent as it stands today. The IEA further emphasized that India will witness the most substantial growth in energy demand globally over the next three decades.
Under the scenarios outlined by the IEA, India’s energy supply is projected to rise from 42 exajoules (EJ) in 2022 to 53.7 EJ in 2030, eventually reaching 73 EJ by 2050. These figures are derived from policies that have been announced, and an even greater supply is projected if further policies are implemented. Notably, the demand for oil is anticipated to increase from 5.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022 to 6.8 million bpd in 2030 and 7.8 million bpd in 2050, subject to stated policies. These numbers may vary under different policy scenarios.
India’s escalating need for cooling and air-conditioning has been influenced by a substantial increase in heatwave events over the past half-century, resulting in more than 17,000 casualties. This has led to a steady growth in air-conditioner ownership in India, with the number of units per 100 households tripling since 2010, now reaching 24 units. Cooling requirements have already had a discernible impact on electricity consumption, with a particularly sharp increase in demand when temperatures exceed 25 degrees Celsius.
One noteworthy projection is that the ownership of household air-conditioners in India is expected to multiply by a factor of nine by 2050 in the IEA’s Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), far outpacing the growth in ownership of other major household appliances such as televisions, refrigerators, and washing machines. Consequently, residential electricity demand stemming from cooling is predicted to increase nine-fold in the STEPS by 2050.
However, the IEA highlights the potential for reduced electricity demand due to the use of energy-efficient air-conditioners and improved thermal insulation in buildings, especially in the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS). In the APS, electricity demand for air-conditioners in 2050 is nearly 15% lower compared to the STEPS. This reduction is greater than the total electricity generation of several countries, such as the Netherlands.
The mounting ownership and utilization of cooling equipment, including air-conditioners, constitute a significant driver of the increase in peak electricity demand in India. In the STEPS, peak electricity demand is projected to rise by approximately 60% from the 2022 level by 2030, with cooling accounting for almost half of this increase. However, the APS envisions lower peak demand due to the implementation of building codes, the use of more energy-efficient appliances, and the adoption of demand response measures, reducing peak electricity demand